NBA Players I'm Rooting for in 2009-10

With links to better articles than this one.

1. 

   Carmelo Anthony, for bulling his way passed Kevin Durant, Dwight Howard, and Brandon Roy into the conversation with LeBron, Kobe, and Dwyane Wade.

2. Brandon Jennings, for telling the NBA, "Fuck your bullshit age limit. Look how dominant a pro I became without your NCAA slave labor system." Somewhere Jeremy Tyler is buying a #3 Milwaukee Bucks jersey.
3. Paul Pierce, for sending out the memo to everyone that the Celtics are still the team to beat.
4. Every Houston Rocket, for telling Yao and T-Mac, "You know what, just stay on the IL this year. We got this."
5. Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook, and Thabo Sefolosha, for informing the league that the Oklahoma City Thunder are here.
6. Ron Artest, because I just love Ron Artest.

NBA All-Star Voting Travesties ... and How to Fix the Process

THE PROBLEM

The fourth and final returns for the 2009 NBA All-Star teams voting, before the final tally on January 19, came in last week. In every year since the NBA began allowing the fans to vote for the starters, there have been many qualms with the fans’ decisions, and this year is no different. However, critical outrage of the voting process took new heights upon the arrival of Yao Ming in the 2002-03 season. As fan voting is open to the entire world, an enormous contingent of Chinese voters voted in Yao Ming as the starting center of the West squad over a clearly superior Shaquille O’Neal in 2003. Luckily, Yao has advanced his game to the point where he truly is the best center in the Western Conference. Still, self-aggrandizing fans (yes, like myself) continue to decry China as the main culprit in the degeneration of All-Star rosters and the posterchild of why fan voting doesn’t work.

I am neither an All-Star nor particularly good at picking out suits.

Yet to focus on China is to ignore the all-encompassing idiocy that permeates All-Star voting. In 2005, fans voted Vince Carter a starter despite his averaging at the time a career-low 15.9 PPG in a ploy to get traded out of Toronto. In 2006, Amare Stoudemire (pre-putting-the-apostrophe-in-his-first-name days), received over 270,000 votes despite not having played a single game the entire year and being months away from a healthy return. Neither of these mockeries had anything to do with Chinese voters. China isn’t ruining All-Star voting; it’s the very concept of fan voting itself that is flawed.

However, to say China is in the clear would also be a lie. There are several travesties in the latest voting results, and at least a couple can be attributed to Chinese voting. Here is a list of the five worst travesties in fan voting this year by order of most awful.

1. Travesty: Tracy McGrady (1,216,224 votes) is a starter in the West.
   Culprit: China
   
   The biggest problem with Chinese voting is not with Yao. Ever since McGrady was traded to the Houston Rockets in 2004, the then-exciting swingman has become one of the most popular NBA players in China with jersey sales there consistently outselling Yao himself. Yet while Yao has developed into one of the most dominant centers in the league, the Artist Formerly Known as T-Mac has deteriorated into a jump-shooting, injury-riddled shell of a star. T-Pain is averaging a nine-year low 15.4 PPG while shooting a career-low and just plain god-awful 38.8% from the field. Unfortunately, no one in China seems to have noticed. Hopefully, T-Pain will still be out on his injury/conditioning sabbatical during the All-Star game, and Chris Paul will take his rightful place alongside Kobe Bryant, opening up T-Pain's roster spot for a far more worthy candidate.


2. Travesty: Yi Jianlian (1,216,348) is only 159,466 votes away from taking a starting spot away from Kevin Garnett.
   Culprit: China
   
   Here is a guy who has absolutely no business being in the All-Star game. Yet, as the only other Chinese basketball player of any merit in the NBA, Chinese voters have made a formidable effort to push this ten-point six-rebound guy shooting 40.3% from the field with a broken pinkie into the realm of All-Stars. His vote count is 464,421 ahead of Chris Bosh (23.4/9.8/2.5 in anchoring the Raptors), 729,692 ahead of Paul Pierce (19.5/5.7/3.7 for the 32-9 Celtics), and a whopping 1,017,148 ahead of Danny Granger (more on him later). Although I doubt Yi will catch up to Garnett, and the world will be safe for one more year, who knows where this trend will lead in the future.


3. Travesty: Gilbert Arenas (403,577) has any votes at all.
   Culprit: General Idiocy
   
   This is even worse than Amar’e getting 270,000+ votes in 2006. At least Amar’e had a phenomenal 2004-05 season. Notwithstanding the brief and ineffective 13-game regular season and four-loss playoff series in which he appeared last year, Gilbert Arenas has basically been on vacation from basketball for a year and a half. Is he getting over 400,000 votes based solely on his blogging? He has 166,584 votes over Joe Johnson (who is dropping 22.0/4.5/6.1 while leading a resurgent 22-15 Hawks team) based on reputation alone.
   
   
4. Travesty: Danny Granger (199,200), where’s the love for this guy?
   Culprit: Being on a small market team
   
   There are many players suffering from preposterously low vote counts despite having excellent seasons like Jason Terry (323,279), Brandon Roy (267,053), Marcus Camby (74,638), Kevin Durant (not in top 11 at position), and Chauncey Billups (not in top 11 at position). To add to the insult, Rafer Alston (372,130) has more votes than any of these players (once again, thank Chinese Rockets fans). One of the most egregious examples, if not the most, must be Danny Granger, who is posting a mind-boggling per-game line of 26.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.4 blocks while hitting 2.7 threes and shooting 46.0% from the field and 86.5% from the line. If those aren’t All-Star credentials, then David Stern isn’t a short, Jewish man. Though Granger’s Pacers are only 13-25, they have distinguished themselves by being the only team so far this season to beat both the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers. Of course, playing in Indiana never helps anyone’s cause. With a grand total of zero nationally televised Indiana Pacers games this season, it’s easy to miss out on the genius that is Granger.


5. Travesty: Samuel Dalembert (257,527) is the second-highest vote-getter for center in the East.
   Culprit: Huge number of Haitian Internet users?
   
   I wanted to attribute this to general idiocy, but I can’t find even any faulty logic by which fans could be voting for Dalembert. His best season was last year when he averaged 10.5/10.4 for the wildly disregarded Philadelphia 76ers, and this year he’s taking a 5.6/8.0 dump. Fortunately, he has no chance of catching up to Dwight Howard, and the coaches should vote the dominant Cavs’s Zydrunas Ilgauskas into the game as Howard’s back-up.

It's okay; I know you didn't vote for me...you Nazi.

THE SOLUTION

That’s only the tip of the iceberg. With so many complaints every year, one would think that All-Star fan voting should end altogether. Certainly many of those self-aggrandizing fans and critics I mentioned before would love to see that. Yet the All-Star game is for the fans, and the fans deserve to have a say in whom they get to see in the game. However, there is no doubt that players getting voted in by reputation or national heritage both reduces the quality of the game and absolutely kills diehard NBA fans. Thus, I propose a solution based on two principles: parity and expertise.

Parity … by Region

The first part of the solution addresses the China problem. An estimated 300 million Chinese are basketball fans, equal to the entire population of the United States. That’s not to say all 300 million are pouring in their All-Star votes or even watching the NBA, but – with the inanely high tallies for Chinese or Rockets-affiliated players like Yi, T-Pain, and Rafer – an inordinately high number seem to be.

This part of the solution limits the influence of the foreign vote. Instead of saying a vote is a vote is a vote, we’ll split the United States into five regions and make the rest of the world into a sixth region.


Region A: Pacific
Composed of: 7 states, 4 territories (in the Pacific)
Population (as of July 1, 2008): 58,594,529
NBA Teams Represented: Los Angeles Lakers, Los Angeles Clippers, Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, Phoenix Suns, Portland Trailblazers, Seattle Supersonics

Region B: Central
Composed of: 14 states
Population: 65,171,914
NBA Teams Represented: Minnesota Timberwolves, Milwaukee Bucks, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers

Region C: Southwest
Composed of: 10 states, 1 territory (Puerto Rico)
Population: 59,346,965
NBA Teams Represented: Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder, Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, New Orleans Hornets

Region D: Northeast
Composed of: 11 states, 1 district (of Columbia)
Population: 62,023,301
NBA Teams Represented: Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, New Jersey Nets, Washington Wizards

Region E: Southeast
Composed of: 8 states
Population: 63,300,793
NBA Teams Represented: Memphis Grizzlies, Charlotte Bobcats, Atlanta Hawks, Orlando Magic, Miami Heat

Region F: International
Composed of: Foreigners, especially them Chinese and Canadians
Population: ~5.9 billion
NBA Teams Represented: Toronto Raptors, Houston Rockets, Yi Jianlian

Each region then has one ballot with a vote for each of the ten positions from both Conferences (East G, G, F, F, C and West G, G, F, F, C). Each ballot would count toward only 1/6 of the results, regardless of how many actual votes were tallied.

So let’s take an example: Guards in the Western Conference. Two are voted in as starters. Assume Regional Parity is in place this year.

There is only one happy ending possible here.

Region A has severe fan bias toward Kobe Bryant, so he gets 1 vote. Even though Baron Davis, Steve Nash, and Brandon Roy also are in this region, none of them seem very popular in the voting this year, so let’s assume the majority of voters are smart and pick Chris Paul for the other guard slot. So we’re at:

Kobe – 1, CP3 – 1

Region B has the Timberwolves, but they don’t have any guards on the Western Conference ballot and the rest of their region is in the East. So let’s also assume they pick Kobe and Paul. Region E contains Memphis and a bunch of East teams. O.J. Mayo and Mike Conley are on the ballot, but you’re going to have a hard time convincing me that either of them would win this region. With no other favorite sons, let’s assume they also go with Kobe and Paul. Same with Region D, which is entirely in the East. Now we’re at:

Kobe – 4, CP3 – 4

Your franchise has officially been chopped and screeewwwed.

Region C represents a lot of West teams, so anything can happen here. Most likely, Paul will get an automatic bid here thanks to Hornets fans. Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are also very popular here. Same with Deron Williams, Jason Kidd, and T-Pain. Let’s assume there are enough casual fans here who don’t pay any attention to actual NBA games and give T-Pain the upset over Kobe.

CP3 – 5, Kobe – 4, T-Pain – 1

Region F’s first choice goes to T-Pain thanks to China. Being as Kobe is one of the top two most popular players in the world, he’ll get the other vote. So the final tally is:

CP3 – 5, Kobe – 5, T-Pain – 2

Despite the fact that, overall, T-Pain may have gotten 200,000 more popular votes than Paul, most of these votes likely came from two regions. Factoring out regional bias in this senatorial manner gives a clear-cut and, really, more deserving winner. If, however, the final tally ended up like this:

Kobe – 6, CP3 – 3, T-Pain – 3

We could go straight to the popular vote, in which case T-Pain would win. But I’m going to add an extra wrinkle instead to try to make the voting even more balanced.

Expertise … by Players

The second part of the solution addresses the general idiocy problem, e.g. fans voting for Gilbert Arenas on name recognition alone, despite his not having played a single game this year. This basically gives players the same deal that coaches have: each of the 450 or so NBA players gets a single ballot, say one week before the end of voting. They can vote for any player not on their own current team, and they only get to vote once. Then their votes are tallied up, and as a collective, count for 1/3 of the total votes. Why 1/3 and not 1/2? Because the All-Star game is for the fans, so their opinion should matter more. Really, it doesn’t have to be 1/3. As long as the ratio is less than 1/2, it should be fine, but for this example, we’ll use 1/3.

So, let’s go back to our earlier scenario:

Kobe – 6, CP3 – 3, T-Pain – 3

Let’s assume all 450 players turned in their 900 votes for the two West guard positions, and the results ended up looking like this:

1. Kobe – 400 votes
   
2. CP3 – 200
3. Kidd – 100 (even NBA players fall for name recognition, just not as badly)
4. Ginobili – 50
5. D. Williams – 25
6. Others – less than 25 each
   

Kobe and Paul end up winning the two top spots, but the player votes count for 1/3 of the total, so each vote ends up being worth three points instead of one. Basically, the player vote counts as three additional regions on top of the existing six. Thus the final tally, including the player votes, is:

Kobe – 9, CP3 – 6, T-Pain – 3

Reason triumphs over homers again! Let’s assume, though, the players get a little nutty and start hating on Kobe and do something like vote for Paul and T-Pain or even two other completely different guards. Then the results could look something like this:

Kobe – 6, CP3 – 6, T-Pain – 6
or
Kobe – 6, CP3 – 3, T-Pain – 3, Kidd – 3, Nash – 3

In this case, the fan vote should always win out, and ties should be determined by the popular vote. In either case above, that would mean Kobe and T-Pain would win. Kobe, because he had the most regional fan votes. T-Pain, because he tied for the second most regional fan votes and had the most popular fan votes between the two players who tied.


MY BALLOT

Finally, my selections for All-Star 2009:

	East	West
G	Devin Harris	Chris Paul
G	Dwyane Wade	Kobe Bryant
F	Danny Granger	Dirk Nowitzki
F	LeBron James	Tim Duncan
C	Dwight Howard	Yao Ming
X	Rodney Stuckey

Sorry Shaq, you are having a renaissance in Phoenix, but you don’t make it onto my ballot when you're only playing every other game. You do take Amar’e off of it, though, by stealing his production. Also, I wanted to put Paul Millsap in as the write-in vote, but Stuckey is closer to the conversation with Harris and Wade than Millsap is with Nowitzki and Duncan. Also, I'm voting for Joe Alexander to be in the dunk contest, because he seems the most enthusiastic and the best leaper in the candidates' videos. Probably because he's the only one who never plays and doesn't have anything better to do.

It's a Two-Team Race for LeBron James in 2010

The Franchise

When LeBron James signed only a three-year contract extension in the summer of 2006 instead of the maximum five-year like the ones his 2003 draftmates Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony had agreed to, this exact scenario playing out right now is what LeBron had in mind. That scenario being the Knicks, the Nets, the Pistons, and virtually half the league clawing each others' faces off to steal him away from the Cavaliers when he can become a free agent in 2010.

'Melo, come on! Everyone's doing it! Just extend three years!

First, though, I have to praise the financial merit of that decision. The tradition had been that a top-tier rookie would always sign for the maximum extension allowed for the longest time and the most money. That's what Anthony did. The 2003 rookie contracts expired in 2007, and he signed a five-year extension with Denver for the maximum salary that would pay him 25% of the salary cap until 2012. Bosh and Wade originally had agreed upon the same thing with their respective teams. LeBron held out though, because some brilliant mind must have gotten through to him and told him that was a conservative choice that left money on the table. In 2010, James, Wade, and Bosh will have completed their seventh years of NBA service, making them eligible for new max contracts worth up to 30% of the salary cap. With the salary cap projecting to be quite a bit over $60 million for the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons, that means James's new contract would be worth over $6 million more than Anthony's old one over those two years. Of course, putting two years on the line is risky in case the player gets injured or turns out not to be worth that kind of money, but this is LeBron James we're talking about here. His deal was so clever that Wade and Bosh immediately renegotiated their extensions to three years as well (Anthony, as usual, wasn't on the ball).

Of course, the big news to NBA teams that summer is that LeBron James will also have a player option in 2010 to become an unrestricted free agent. Joining him will be the other titans of the 2003 draft, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. This news is so seismic that it has completely overshadowed the fact that an army of other NBA All-Stars like Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Steve Nash, Manu Ginobili, Joe Johnson, Paul Pierce, Yao Ming, Ray Allen, Tracy McGrady, and Michael Redd could also be on the market.

Yet the big fish in this ocean is definitely LeBron, making him the biggest free agent prize since Shaquille O'Neal ditched Orlando for L.A. twelve years ago. There are a ton of teams who could end up with enough cap space to sign LeBron in 2010 (Chinese marketing fans: imagine if Houston let T-Mac go and signed both LeBron and Yao), but four teams this year alone have already made big moves to get him. Two of them, however, have very little chance. The other two are guaranteed to have LeBron in one of their uniforms when his new contract kicks off.

-- FORGET ABOUT IT --

The New Jersey Nets

Cap Space-Clearing Moves: Traded Jason Kidd and change for Devin Harris and change. Traded Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian and Bobby Simmons.

Why They Could Get LeBron: Bruce Ratner, the majority stakeholder of the Nets, wants to move the team to Brooklyn, the hometown of Jay-Z, a minority stakeholder of the Nets and a close friend of LeBron's. Brooklyn gives LeBron access to New York City, the biggest media market in the NBA. He has even said his favorite city in the world is New York, but his favorite borough is Brooklyn, not Manhattan.

Get used to this, New Jersey. It's going to keep happening.

Why They Won't Get LeBron: Because everything in the preceding paragraph is a big, steaming pile of crap. The Atlantic Yards project is so mired in legal problems that it'll be lucky to begin construction in 2010. The eminent domain case against Atlantic Yards, filed by the residents of Brooklyn, won't reach a decision until March 2009, at which point the petitioners will of course appeal and drag out the process even more months. Moreover, Bruce Ratner is a real estate mogul, not a sports owner. He cares a lot more about making sure his $4 billion real estate project is completed than he does about putting LeBron in a Brooklyn Nets uniform. In fact, he has been trying to sell the Nets for the past year due to the mountain of financial losses the team takes every year.

Why do they lose so much money? Because the Nets suck. Devin Harris looks like a future All-Star, but Vince Carter is done, Yi Jianlian and Brook Lopez look like quality rotation guys at best, and the rest of the team is flat-out terrible. A lot of their future could depend on which guys General Manager Rod Thorn can bring in for Vince Carter, but, unlike the other three teams on this list, they only have enough cap space right now to sign just one max free agent in 2010.

Michael Redd: "Just don't ask me to play any defense."

And Jay-Z? How many times has he been at Madison Square Garden for the Knicks this year? He probably has season tickets. Now when was the last time you saw Jay-Z at the Izod Center watching the Nets? 2006? 2005? The New Jersey Nets are not moving to Brooklyn. If anywhere, they're much more likely to move into the Prudential Center with the Devils in Newark. Even if Ratner does keep them, they're not going to have an arena ready until 2012. If Jay-Z won't go into Jersey to watch his own team, why would LeBron waste two years in the swamp?

Here you go, New Jersey. This is Michael Redd's phone number. Good luck.

The Detroit Pistons

Cap-Space Clearing Move: Traded Chauncey Billups and Antonio McDyess for Allen Iverson.

Why They Could Get LeBron: With Allen Iverson and Rasheed Wallace both coming off the books after this year, Detroit will have enough salary cap space to sign two max free agents. Imagine LeBron with Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, or Amare Stoudemire. After playing together for Team USA the past few years, you know those guys are dying to play with each other in the NBA. Plus, Detroit already has a strong core in place with veterans Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton and promising young guys like Rodney Stuckey, Jason Maxiell, and Amir Johnson.

Why They Won't Get LeBron: This is a completely lateral move. Detroit and Cleveland are both in mid-level, slumping markets. On paper, Detroit without A.I. and 'Sheed looks a lot better than Cleveland without LeBron, but the players in Cleveland have a synergy with LeBron now after playing with him for so many years, and they know they can be successful with an offense focused around him. Detroit hasn't had an offense focused around a single attack since Isiah Thomas left town and will struggle for a while getting all the pieces to fit together around a giant new piece.

Get used to this, Detroit. It's going to keep happening, too.

More importantly, GM Joe Dumars knows this. He's a smart guy. He knows it's not likely he'll get LeBron in 2010. Unlike the other teams, he's actually getting all his cap space next year. Is he just going to stand pat, lose Iverson and Wallace, and trudge through a potential 30-52 season for a long shot at getting LeBron? No, he'll probably make a big play in the 2009 free agent pool and maybe target a guy like Bosh or Stoudemire in 2010 if he still has any space left.

-- THE PLAYERS --

The Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap-Space Clearing Moves: Traded Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Cedric Simmons, and Shannon Brown for Ben Wallace and Joe Smith. Traded Donyell Marshall and Ira Newble for Delonte West and Wally Szczerbiak.

Why They Could Keep LeBron: It's his hometown. Let's start with that. LeBron growing up in Akron, OH, about 30 minutes south of Cleveland, is a far stronger bond than he has with Jay-Z or the New York Yankees (Guess who else grew up in the 330? This guy!). New York embraces him hard now because it wants him, but Ohio is home no matter where he goes. If he leaves Cleveland, the community will still love him even if the fans don't. If he doesn't pick New York, you think they'll feel the same way? No, they'll turn on him faster than you can say, "Stephon Marbury."

It's not just a sentimental choice, though. In the past, the Cavs have always been much-maligned for not having the right pieces around LeBron. In particular, Mike Brown has been criticized as having the least original offensive playbook in the league. I saw it. It was a single sheet of paper, and all it said was "Isolation: LeBron James." Though their defense was always top notch, opposing teams could beat them by suffocating James and letting the peanut gallery try to figure out what to do.

Entire Cleveland Cavaliers Offensive Playbook: 2005-2007

Those days are over. 13 games into their season, the Cleveland Cavaliers lead the entire league in offensive efficiency at 110.6 while still staying in the top half of defensive teams with an 11th-place 101.2 defensive efficiency. Their margin of victory is 8.3 ppg, behind only the loaded L.A. Lakers at 13.5. But the Lakers have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom holding down the front court with Kobe in the back. The Cavs just happen to finally have the right pieces around James.

First, signing Mo Williams over the summer has finally given the Cavs the second scoring option that they have never had in the past (let me repeat that, Larry Hughes: never). More than that though, their gigantic trade last season brought in Szczerbiak and West to join Boobie Gibson in spreading the floor with their shooting. It also brought Ben Wallace to compete with Anderson Varejao for the hustle and defense points down low. Meanwhile, Zydrunas Ilgauskas has always been a skilled, sweet-shooting center who worked very well with James. The ball is finally moving around now in Cleveland because they finally have guys who know what they're supposed to do with it (other than get it to LeBron). It's not a superstar crew like in L.A., but they're good enough that, when teamed with LeBron's standardly spectacular 30-8-8 gameplay, the Cavs are looking more likely to oust the Celtics as the team to meet the Lakers in the Finals. If LeBron wins a championship in Cleveland, the chance he leaves is almost nil.

The Cleveland Cavs are playing extremely well so far this year.

Then there is the cap space. Cleveland actually has enough players coming off the cap next year and in 2010 to give James the max and sign one more max player. We could be looking at a triumvirate of James-Bosh-Williams or James-Stoudemire-Williams. That's a Big 3 that can compete with anybody. But...

Why They Will Lose LeBron: The problem with the previous two paragraphs is that they are mutually exclusive reasons. Namely, the only way Cleveland gets the cap space it needs to sign another max player is by losing all those players that are making the team work so well right now. Even if they don't and keep the current line-up, Ben Wallace is 34, Szczerbiak is 33, and Big Z is 33. Who is Cleveland going to get to replace those guys while still trying to re-sign younger guys like Varejao and West?

Normally, with a meal ticket like LeBron on board, it shouldn't be too difficult to find the pieces to build around him. Yet, out of the four GMs running the teams on this list, Danny Ferry has been, by far, the most incompetent. His first moves on the job were to throw huge money at Larry Hughes, Donyell Marshall, and Damon Jones, all of whom tanked and are no longer with the team. He lucked out in that the disparate pieces he put together to get cap space just happen to be gelling.

Danny Ferry: "Durrr..."

Yet he is not the person who made the critical mistake. That would go to former GM Jim Paxson. When you have a young phenom like LeBron, you build a dynasty around him through the draft. There was a very critical draft in 1987, when the Chicago Bulls had Michael Jordan but were still bad enough to get high draft picks. The Bulls owned the 8th pick and had their own 10th. With those two picks, they ended up with Scottie Pippen (via trade) and Horace Grant, both critical pieces to the start of the Bulls' title run. The Cavs had a draft like that, in 2004, and Paxson picked Luke Jackson. Well, Luke Jackson is no longer in the NBA. A few other people chosen after him, like Andris Biedrins, Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, and Kevin Martin, still are and seem to be doing pretty well. Of course, Jackson was just the latest in a long string of Paxson's bad high first-round picks that included Dajuan Wagner, DeSagana Diop, Chris Mihm, and Trajan Langdon (to his credit, Paxson did also pick Andre Miller and stole Carlos Boozer in the second round, though he did also get bamboozled by Boozer and lost him to Utah).

With James now the best player in the league, the Cavs are way too good to ever get a high draft pick again in his prime, unless James suffers some debilitating, season-ending injury or they're able to pry one away from another lowly team. With Danny Ferry in the front office, I just have zero confidence in this management. Which just leaves one last team.

The New York Knicks

Cap-Space Clearing Moves: Traded Jamal Crawford for Al Harrington. Traded Zach Randolph and Mardy Collins for Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley.

Why They Will Get LeBron: Anyone who says New York is the mecca of basketball is living in 1970. On all levels of basketball, from the playgrounds to high school to college to the NBA, New York has lost the title. But what New York is is the media capital of the world. Taking up residence nowhere else on this planet would gain LeBron more exposure than in Madison Square Garden.

LeBron is coming.

On the basketball side of the story, they actually have a pretty weak team. For all the hype surrounding Wilson Chandler and David Lee, I can only imagine two or three future All-Star appearances between them at most. In particular, Chandler and Nate Robinson seem only to be wrecking havoc being in Mike D'Antoni's all-out offensive system. But now we're getting closer to where the talent is: in the management. D'Antoni took a horribly overpaid and underperforming team and turned them (at least before they lost Crawford and Randolph) into a playoff contender. Better than that, people want to come play for D'Antoni, including one other free agent who could turn the tide in 2010.

Just like Cleveland and Detroit, New York cleared enough salary to be able to sign two max free agents in 2010. They could also get James + Bosh, James + Wade, James + Stoudemire, etc. But having D'Antoni on the bench must make New York the front-runner for getting at least one other free agent: Steve Nash. Nash had the pinnacle of his career in D'Antoni's system, and he'd relish the chance to play in that system again. Not only that, he makes his summer home in New York and could also use all that media exposure to promote all the philanthropic efforts in which he's involved. Putting Nash on the same team as LeBron would make LeBron, for the first time in his life outside USA basketball, not the best playmaker on the team and not the ideal starter for the offense. That would allow him to concentrate completely on what he is the best in basketball at: finishing. Add to that another player like Bosh or Wade, and it's like he's back in Beijing.

Yes, Nash will be 36 by then, but he has kept himself in amazing shape and should still be very effective. Also, with Knicks owner James Dolan, Nash won't have the same problem he did with Suns owner Robert Sarver, who drafted three point guards who could've been excellent understudies to Nash (including Robinson) but was way too big a cheapskate to hold onto any of them. Of course, it also helps that the Isiah Thomas regime has been replaced with Donnie Walsh, a legendarily genius GM. The Indiana Pacers were a mess when Walsh finally handed the keys over to Larry Bird, but people forget they were a big favorite to win it all in 2004-05 and were crushing the defending champion Pistons at home the night Ron Artest ran into the stands and destroyed the franchise.

D'Antoni and Walsh. Yes, you can bank your franchise on these guys.

Walsh is proving he's still got the touch in New York, deftly handling the absolute disaster that Thomas left behind and shedding enough previously thought-to-be unmanagable contracts in just a few months. New York has the opposite of what LeBron has in Cleveland. The Cavs are a team built to compete now but have incompetent management who can't plan for the future. Well the Knicks don't have the pieces to compete now, but they have some real pros in the front office who know exactly what they're doing. The Knicks have a future, and LeBron will be the crowning jewel of it.

Why They Wouldn't Get LeBron: Michael Jordan. Bill Russell. Tim Duncan. These are all franchise superstars who created dynasties for the teams that drafted them. There is no denying that there is an air of loyalty and dedication around those guys that isn't around someone like Shaq or Wilt Chamberlain, whose legacies are both tainted by a single word: "selfish" (also, "free-throw percentage"). LeBron knows that, even if he goes to New York and wins 10 titles, he'll be put on a different pedestal than Jordan, Russell, and Duncan.

But what LeBron needs to keep in mind is this: more important than Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, Duncan has R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich. More important than Scottie Pippen, Jordan had Jerry Krause and Phil Jackson. More important than any of the multitudes of Hall-of-Famers he played with, Russell had Red Auerbach. LeBron, do you think your legacy is safe in the hands of Danny Ferry and Mike Brown? Or do Donnie Walsh and Mike D'Antoni sound like better names to have at the head of your organization?

Get used to this, New York.

It's still almost two years away, but I'll see you in New York, LBJ.

Happy St. Patty's Day: Saint Mary's Patrick Mills

Point Guard Derrick Rose was the number one draft pick this year and is making a strong case at Rookie of the Year by averaging 17/4/5 in a supposedly crowded Chicago backcourt. Behind him came point guards Russell Westbrook and Jerryd Bayless, who both dominated their respective summer leagues. Even D.J. Augustin has started to contribute while sharing the 1-spot with Raymond Felton. Yet next summer's draft could be the most stacked class of point guards since 2005, when Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Felton went 3-4-5 and Monta Ellis and Louis Williams got snagged in the second round.

Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings

At the top of 2009's point guard mountain stand the Euroleaguers, Ricky Rubio and Brandon Jennings. The December 11 meeting of Rubio's DKV Joventut and Jenning's Virtus Roma should be epic, if only for the sheer number of NBA scouts who'll be present (what'll also be epic is the the dump I'll be taking into the paper bag I send my local Comcast office for not allowing me access to ESPN360 to watch the game). Yet Jennings is still struggling to make an impact in the nascent Italian League season, while Rubio hasn't played at all yet after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his wrist.

Meanwhile the NCAA season is tipping off here on the other side of the pond, and a whole new crop of point guards are setting out to make their cases for the NBA. One to keep an eye on is Patrick Mills, the lightning backfielder from Australia via Saint Mary's. He led Saint Mary's last year with 14.8 points and 3.5 assists, carrying the Gaels to the first round of the NCAA tournament. However, this summer in Beijing was when Mills really padded his resume, leading the Australian Olympic basketball team with 14.2 points in 23.5 minutes. Not only did he score efficiently (47% FG, 36% 3PT, 83% FT), he also took care of the ball, averaging only one turnover to two assists and two steals per game.

Mills cruising passed Chris Paul

Of course, when it comes to the Olympics, all NBA teams seem to see is how you do against Team USA, and this is where Patrick Mills shined. Ricky Rubio made defense his calling card this summer, but he was spanked over and over again by Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Well what those two did to Rubio, Mills did to them. In particular, Mills matched Paul, one of the NBA's quickest players, step for step. In the exhibition round, Mills scored 13 points while Paul, Williams, and Jason Kidd combined for only 5 total. The story wasn't much different in the medal round, as Mills scored 20 while USA's three point guards combined for 16. Granted, Mills was asked to carry his team's scoring load, while Kidd, Paul, and Williams were only asked to distribute the ball. Yet to score so efficiently against the top point guards in the NBA and not be outclassed defensively (ahem, Rubio) has to be impressive. If he can raise his game even higher this year and take Saint Mary's on another run in March, look for Patrick Mills's name to appear even more in June at the NBA draft.

Top Point Guards in the 2009 Draft from the Cheap Seats

1. Brandon Jennings, Virtus Roma - Explosive athlete with amazing court vision. I originally had my doubts about whether he was too showy to be effective, but if he buys into his role, playing second string QB in a team-first European environment, then he's the best on the table in my book.

2. Ricky Rubio, DKV Joventut - That wrist injury concerns me, but those Pistol Pete comparisons flat-out piss me off. Yes, he's a white guard who has that flop-mop haircut. Yes, he is a great ball-handler and genius passer. That's it. Pistol Pete was also phenomenal scorer. He was averaging 40 ppg in diapers. Rubio doesn't have that yet. He does have great size for his position at 6'4" and a reputation for being an aggressive defender, but only good-not-great athleticism. His skills and vision put him this high.

3. Patrick Mills, Saint Mary's - Lightning fast with an invisible first step, he also takes care of the ball, can stroke from distance, and keeps in front of his man on defense. However, unlike the two guys ahead of him, he lacks the court vision all great point guards have. He also needs to learn how to change gears like Jennings can and control the tempo of the game. Then again, Saint Mary's uptempo offense is built around him. I was also going to mention how Mills and Ty Lawson are only 5'11", but then Chris Paul gave me a dirty look and said, "So what?"

4. Jrue Holiday, UCLA - He's not a great ball-handler or passer, but he's athletic, versatile, and a good size for PG, so somebody's going to love him. He's also been spectacularly misspelling his first name for the past 18 years.

5. Ty Lawson, UNC - Super quick just like Mills, but with better court vision. Not as talented a scorer though, and, after three years in the national spotlight at UNC, teams have got to wonder how much upside is left.

6. Stephen Curry, Davidson - Apparently showed off some smooth point guard skills at the LeBron James Skills Academy, but if a team drafts Curry, it's going to be for his world-class shooting.

Boomer!

Kevin Durant: 2008-09 Most Improved Player

Last night, the sorry Milwaukee Bucks beat the even sorrier Oklahoma City Thunder 98-87. Kevin Durant, last year's Rookie of the Year, finished with 12 points (on 35.7% shooting), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, and 4 turnovers in 33 and a half minutes. For much of the first half, Durant ran around with 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks, 3 turnovers, and 3 fouls. On his own team, he was outplayed by Chris Wilcox and even rookie Russell Westbrook, who managed 13 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists, along with a block and only 2 turnovers in less than 22 minutes.

After all this, I'm still declaring that Kevin Durant wins Most Improved Player this year. He is taking his game to a completely new level this year.

To understand, we have to take a look at what he did last year in his rookie season. Coming into 2007-08, I was very wary of Durant. He was vastly overhyped in my mind. In fantasy basketball drafts, he was easily going 3-4 rounds too early. I took one look at that rail-thin body, checked out the sorry state his team was in, considered the inferior D-I competition he faced to put up his 25 and 11 in college, and bluntly spout out "41% shooting and 4 turnovers per game." He certainly had the length and unquestionably the skill, but he lacked world-class speed and was far below average in strength. Rookies who have excellent shooting fundamentals but lack the athleticism to get to the rim and strength to post up always end up doing the same thing: take too many jumpshots. Also, being forced to play shooting guard and still being much weaker than most of them, I knew Durant wasn't going to come close to double-digit rebounds.

At the beginning of the season, he wasn't doing any better than I had predicted. By the All-Star break, he was barely shooting 40% and averaging a paltry 4 rpg (pathetic for a 6'9" guy) and 2 apg (though he was never a great passer). He didn't turn the ball over anywhere close to 4 times a game (only 2.8), but his 2 spg and 2 bpg from college halved to 1 and 1 in the pros.


Then something interesting happened after the All-Star break. He got better. It was actually quite subtle. He averaged slightly higher points, rebounds, assists, and turnovers, but those could all be attributed to the extra four minutes he was playing in each game. However, his field goal percentage shot up from .402 to .476. Quite simply, Durant wasn't chucking up jump shots anymore. From behind the 3-point line, where he never adjusted to the NBA distance, he went from shooting 3 three-pointers per game to 1. His more aggressive approach to scoring also showed in his taking and making almost one more free-throw per game. Midway through his rookie season, instead of hitting a wall, he determined his primary weakness--shot selection--and corrected it. Adam Morrison, are you paying attention here?

Kevin Durant Pre-All-Star Break vs. Post-All Star Break

	G	MP	FG%	3P%	FT%	3P	3PA	PTS	TRB	AST
Pre-Break	50	33.1	0.402	0.282	0.865	1.0	3.4	19.4	4.1	2.2
Post-Break	30	37.1	0.476	0.314	0.885	0.4	1.2	21.9	4.8	2.7

Overall, Kevin Durant finished with a decent 20 ppg on 43% shooting in 34 mpg and won the Rookie of the Year award. They're not spectacular numbers, but he was only a 19-year old rookie. Put him next to two other 19-yr old rookie combo forwards who were given the green light to score from day one, and Durant compares favorably.

Rookie Season Stats of Franchise Combo Forwards

	G	MP	FG%	3P%	FT%	PTS	TRB	AST	PER
LeBron James	79	39.5	0.417	0.290	0.754	20.9	5.5	5.9	18.3
Carmelo Anthony	82	36.5	0.426	0.322	0.777	21.0	6.1	2.8	17.6
Kevin Durant	80	34.6	0.430	0.288	0.873	20.3	4.4	2.4	15.8

If we focused on post-All-Star break splits, Durant looks even better. In fact, though almost all rookies hit the wall and get worse as the season progresses, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are two of the rare rookies who played all year and still actually got better in the second half. So no need to worry about that 12/3/2 in the opener. If his 95-lb body can hold up through this season, I'm guessing Durant will eventually have doubled that stat line and be averaging something closer to the 24/6/4 he did last April. Just as LeBron made the leap in Year 2, so will Kevin Durant.

C'mon Michael Redd, you can't defend me!

Can Argentina, Spain, or Lithuania Stop Team USA?

Nope.

Worthy of Being Called the Dream Team?

Thoughts on Team USA after their 119-82 destruction of Spain:

• Threeeeeeee! That was the big story of the first half. After shooting so poorly through their first three games, the U.S. destroyed Spain's zone with a 7 for 11 performance behind the arc in that half. That cooled down to 3 for 11 in the second (before Tayshaun Prince hit two in garbage time), so hopefully it wasn't just a 20 minute fluke. Another interesting point: none of those threes came from Michael Redd. Don't know what to think about that just yet.
  
  
• Our depth is phenomenal. The second team of Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has been playing BETTER than Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard. Wade has been spectacular offensively, scoring 16 in 19 minutes, but what surprises me is how much Bosh stepped up when Howard was out in this game and the last one against Greece. On one play, the U.S. was playing a three-guard line-up of Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Bosh. With everyone else on the perimeter, Bosh still held down the paint by himself against two Spaniards with a block and a rebound. He didn't score well today, but he's made his presence felt on the boards and defense.
  
  
• The reason Wade and Bosh got so much run, though, was because Bryant and Howard were in so much foul trouble. As effective as Bosh and Carlos Boozer have been in their minutes, Howard is just flat-out unstoppable when he's on the court. He needs to be there during close games in the Medal Round.
  
  
• One of the reasons Howard needs to be there is to defend the giants like Pau Gasol, who manhandled Bosh when Bosh tried going man-to-man. Good thing Team USA's team defense has been so great. Did you see Wade flying out of nowhere to block Felipe Reye's shot? Their rotations look great. This is not the same team that couldn't figure out how to defend the pick-and-roll in 2006. Also, I could see the U.S. picking off a lot of balls and getting transition baskets, but I didn't realize their 28 forced turnovers was the second-highest ever for a U.S. Olympic team since the original 1992 Dream Team was taking the world's lunch money, bus ticket, and girlfriends, too.
  
  
• On the flip side, Ricky Rubio's vaunted defense looked slightly over-hyped as Chris Paul and Deron Williams beat him like a pinata time and time again. Still, watching Rubio go up against Brandon Jennings next year should be awesome.
  
  
• This win was promising, and with only Germany left, the U.S. is likely to sweep its pool. Yet being undefeated in Pool Play means nothing. Spain and Lithuania were the only 5-0 teams after Pool Play in Athens, and neither got a medal. In fact, Spain was knocked out by the 2004 U.S. team, a.k.a. the Dysfunctional Team.
  
  
• Only thing that tainted this victory? A text message from my bro, Mark. I gave him the score after the first quarter and asked if he was watching. His reply: "no. im not watching the game. but im watching my girlfriend. she so pretty!" What man says that to another man? I hope he finds where he lost his manhood soon, because I can't talk to this sackless blob.
  

Great win, but everything gets harder in the Medal Round. Lithuania looks fantastic, and a veteran team like Argentina can't be counted out. The biggest disappointment there has got to be European champion Russia, who has completely collapsed here and likely won't make the Medal Round at all. Team USA, meanwhile, looks like it's regaining its previous Dream Team stature.

I think I know why Spain had trouble seeing this beating coming.